In December 2025, the Mutharika government declared a state of national disaster as below-average early rainfall raised the prospect of a poor 2025/26 growing season. The declaration triggered international humanitarian appeals and opened access to emergency food stocks.

It was Malawi’s fourth food-related emergency declaration in four years — following the Cyclone Freddy damage and El Niño drought of 2023–24. For companies operating in or investing in Malawi, the frequency of these events is not bad luck: it is a structural feature of the operating environment that must be factored into business models.

What happened in December 2025

The Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) had forecast a mixed rainy season for Malawi’s 2025/26 season, with southern and central regions expecting below-normal rainfall through December–January. By December, the early rains had been poor, soil moisture was low, and planted crops were under stress.

The government — under pressure to demonstrate competence in its first months — moved quickly to declare a disaster, which:

  • Activates international humanitarian response mechanisms
  • Unlocks emergency food stocks managed by the National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA)
  • Triggers WFP and NGO food distribution programmes
  • Justifies emergency imports of maize without standard import duties

The four-year pattern

Since 2022, Malawi has experienced:

2022: Multiple flooding events from tropical cyclones, followed by recovery period. Crop losses in flood-affected areas, though central Malawi performed reasonably.

2023: Cyclone Freddy — the most powerful tropical cyclone ever recorded in the southern hemisphere — struck in March 2023, devastating southern Malawi. Nearly 680,000 people directly affected, infrastructure losses in the billions of Kwacha.

2024: El Niño drove severe drought across southern and central Malawi. The worst dry spell in decades. Maize production fell significantly below the average, triggering a national food emergency affecting 5.7 million people.

2025/26: Below-average early rainfall triggering a December 2025 state of disaster, ahead of the main growing season.

This is not a run of unusual bad luck. Climate science projects that southern Africa — and Malawi in particular — faces more variable and extreme rainfall events as global temperatures rise. The IPCC assessments for the region suggest increased frequency of both floods and droughts, often in the same season in different parts of the country.

What this means structurally for business

Agricultural supply chain volatility is high. Companies sourcing agricultural commodities from Malawi — maize, soya, groundnuts, tobacco — need explicit season-to-season volume planning that assumes large swings. Multi-year averaging for sourcing contracts, or multi-country sourcing, is necessary.

Consumer purchasing power is seasonally compressed. When the harvest is poor, rural household incomes fall. Consumer goods companies, microfinance institutions, and mobile money operators see significant drops in transaction volumes in the post-disaster period.

Construction and logistics disruption. Emergency food imports and humanitarian logistics compete with commercial logistics for truck capacity and warehouse space, especially through the southern corridor via Beira and Nacala. Planning buffer time during emergency periods is necessary.

Government attention is diverted. When a disaster is declared, ministerial attention shifts to emergency response. Investment approvals, regulatory decisions, and government counter-signing of contracts slow. Planning around these periods for transaction timelines is important.

The opportunity side

The recurring disaster cycle also creates recurring commercial needs:

Emergency food supply. The government and WFP procure large volumes of maize, pulses, and nutritional products during emergencies. Regional and international suppliers with local logistics capacity and the ability to navigate government procurement can access significant volumes.

Irrigation and water management. The variability of rainfall is the most direct argument for irrigation investment. The government and donors are increasingly funding irrigation infrastructure precisely because of this pattern.

Climate-smart agriculture. Drought-tolerant seed varieties, conservation agriculture techniques, and soil water management are growing areas of investment and donor funding in response to the climate pattern.

Sources: Malawi government communications, SARCOF, World Food Programme Malawi, OCHA.