Malawi’s mineral sector is attracting growing international attention. Estimates put the country’s potential mineral export revenues at up to $30 billion between 2026 and 2040, with annual revenues projected to reach $3 billion by 2034. Two recent developments illustrate both the opportunity and the governance challenges any serious investor needs to understand.

The Chinese ownership investigation

In February 2026, an investigation by ICIJ and Finance Uncovered revealed that entities linked to the Chinese state had quietly assumed control of one of Malawi’s most strategically significant rare-earth mineral projects — without the oversight or notification required under Malawian law.

The Malawian government has launched an official investigation in response. Civil society groups have raised concerns about weak regulatory capacity and opaque ownership structures, warning that the country risks ceding control of national resources without adequate transparency or benefit.

The case has prompted renewed attention to ownership disclosure requirements, beneficial ownership registration, and the enforcement capacity of the Malawi Mines Department.

Fortuna Metals: regulatory clarity for critical minerals

On a different front, Australian company Fortuna Metals Limited secured an official exemption from Malawi’s restrictions on raw mineral exports in early 2026. The exemption clears a significant regulatory pathway for its potential rutile and graphite operations, and provides a concrete example of how the regulatory environment can be navigated when the process is handled correctly.

The Investment and Export Promotion Act of 2024 — enacted by parliament to strengthen Malawi’s investment framework — is relevant here: it expanded the mandate of the Malawi Investment and Trade Centre (MITC) and introduced clearer procedures for foreign investment approval and export authorisation.

What this means for companies considering the mining sector

The $30 billion headline figure is real in the sense that the mineral endowment is documented. Rare earth elements, graphite, uranium, and rutile are all present in commercially interesting quantities. The government has identified mining as a strategic priority under its Economic Recovery Plan.

But the governance picture is uneven. The Fortuna Metals case shows that regulatory clarity is achievable — but requires a deliberate process. The Chinese ownership investigation shows what happens when that process is bypassed or ignored: government scrutiny, reputational risk, and potential loss of licence.

For any company evaluating mining investment in Malawi, the practical implications are:

  • Ownership structures must be transparent and compliant with local disclosure requirements from day one
  • Export restrictions apply to raw minerals and require specific exemptions — this is not a formality
  • The MITC investment approval process, while administratively demanding, provides real protection when completed properly
  • Due diligence on existing licence holders and local partners is essential — the opaque ownership structures exposed in the ICIJ investigation are not unique to that one project

Our read

Malawi’s mining sector is genuinely interesting for international investors. The governance risks are real but manageable with the right local knowledge and a clean approach to compliance. We’ve navigated this environment and know where the real complications tend to emerge.

Sources: ICIJ/Finance Uncovered investigation February 2026, AFSIC, U.S. State Department Investment Climate Statement 2025, Malawi trade.gov.