On September 24, 2025, Peter Mutharika of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was re-elected as President of Malawi, winning 57% of the vote against incumbent Lazarus Chakwera’s 33%. Chakwera conceded defeat the same day — a fast and orderly transition that Chatham House described as providing “lessons for Africa” on democratic electoral processes.

The political context

Chakwera had come to power in 2020 in unusual circumstances — his victory in the June 2020 fresh election followed a Constitutional Court ruling that annulled the May 2019 election due to widespread irregularities. His presidency was characterised by economic deterioration that, by 2025, had become the dominant political issue.

The governing Tonse Alliance fractured in July 2024 when the United Transformation Movement (UTM) withdrew, leaving the MCP to contest the September 2025 elections without its coalition partner. Combined with economic frustration — persistent inflation, forex shortages, fuel scarcity — Chakwera’s support collapsed.

Mutharika, at 85 years old, had previously served as president from 2014 to 2020. His DPP was associated with significant infrastructure investment during that period, including road construction and other capital works.

What drove the result

Analysts consistently pointed to economic performance as the primary driver:

  • Inflation at 33% at the time of the election
  • Chronic forex shortages affecting imports of essential goods
  • Fuel scarcity affecting transport and power generation costs
  • Maize prices well above historical averages, squeezing household budgets
  • Perception of rising corruption under the Chakwera administration

The economic discontent translated into a decisive swing, with Mutharika winning across multiple regions.

What the change of government means for business

Continuity on investment policy. Malawi’s core investment framework — the Investment and Export Promotion Act, the SEZ law, MITC’s mandate — is legislative rather than executive, and unlikely to change materially under the new government.

Mining and extractives. The Mutharika government’s previous term was associated with more proactive engagement on mining investment. A renewed focus on the sector — particularly uranium, rare earths, and graphite — is expected.

Relationship reset opportunities. A change of government typically creates a window for companies to establish new relationships with key ministries and agencies. Companies that had difficult experiences with the Chakwera administration have an opportunity to engage fresh.

Stabilisation priority. Mutharika’s most urgent economic task is stabilising the forex situation and reducing inflation. A government focused on macro stabilisation — even if the tools are painful — is ultimately better for business than one that avoids the necessary adjustments.

Development partner relations. The IMF program’s termination in May 2025 was partly a function of the Chakwera government’s reform pace. A new government, with a fresh mandate and incentive to demonstrate competence, may be better positioned to re-engage with the IMF and unlock budget support.

The transition

The peaceful and accepted outcome of the 2025 election is itself significant. Malawi has now had two consecutive election cycles — 2020 and 2025 — that demonstrated functioning democratic institutions: a court that was willing to annul an election, and a government that accepted a decisive electoral defeat. In a regional context where contested elections are a recurring risk to business stability, this matters.

Sources: Al Jazeera, US News, Chatham House, Africa Center.