2024 was a difficult year for Malawi’s economy by most measures. GDP growth came in at 1.8% — below population growth, meaning average living standards fell again. Inflation rose to 32.3%, up from 28.7% in 2023. Foreign exchange remained scarce. The IMF program, approved in November 2023, went without a completed review.
Against this backdrop, Malawi also made genuine progress on its investment framework, attracted significant development financing, and maintained macro stability at the official level despite severe pressure.
The economic conditions in 2024
Growth: 1.8% GDP growth represented a marginal improvement from 2023’s 1.5%, but remained below the rate needed to reduce poverty in a country with one of the world’s fastest-growing populations.
Inflation: 32.3% annual inflation eroded real incomes across the board. Food, housing, and utilities drove the increase. The Reserve Bank maintained a tight monetary stance — policy rate at 26% — but could not offset the supply-side price pressures.
Forex: The Reserve Bank conducted regular forex auctions throughout 2024, but total volumes were small. The informal market premium widened through the year, reflecting demand that official channels could not meet.
Public debt: Malawi’s public debt remained elevated, with high interest payments consuming a large share of revenue. The government’s fiscal deficit for 2024/25 was projected at 9.5% of GDP when the February 2025 budget was presented.
What went right in 2024
Legislative reform: The Investment and Export Promotion Act 2024 and the SEZ framework created in January 2024 improved the formal investment environment. The MITC One-Stop Shop began operationalising.
Mining investment momentum: Multiple foreign mining companies continued exploration and development activities. Government commitment to the sector — uranium, rare earths, graphite — remained strong.
Development financing secured: The World Bank’s DDO instrument was used to secure fertilizer imports. The pipeline of energy infrastructure projects (Mpatamanga, MEAP) advanced through preparation stages.
Food security: Despite El Niño effects reducing rainfall in parts of the south, the national harvest was sufficient to prevent a crisis on the scale of some previous years.
What to expect in 2025
The World Bank’s January 2025 forecast projected 3.0% growth for 2025, driven by agricultural recovery and mining investment. The government’s own projections were similar. The IMF Article IV consultation process, underway in 2025, maintained the policy dialogue even after the ECF program’s termination in May 2025.
The energy investment pipeline — $350M Mpatamanga approval, $150M rural electrification — positioned Malawi for meaningful improvement in its energy situation over 2026–2030, even if 2025 continued to see load shedding.
Our read
2024 was the trough of a multi-year adjustment. The macro conditions were genuinely difficult. But the direction of travel in investment policy, energy infrastructure, and agricultural recovery pointed toward improving conditions from 2025 onward. Companies that entered during the difficult years — building relationships, establishing structure, and operating through the complexity — typically find themselves well positioned when conditions improve.
Sources: World Bank Economic Monitor, Nyasa Times Year in Review 2025, IMF, Bridgepath Capital.