On March 25, 2024, President Lazarus Chakwera declared a State of Disaster in 23 of Malawi’s 28 districts following severe El Niño-induced drought conditions. The declaration triggered a national and international humanitarian response and marked one of the worst agricultural seasons in recent Malawi history.

The scale of the 2024 drought

El Niño conditions from late 2023 through the 2023/24 growing season produced erratic and below-average rainfall across most of Malawi, with the south and central regions most severely affected.

Key impact figures:

  • 22.9% decline in maize harvest against the five-year average
  • 5.7 million people (28% of the population) projected in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis) during the October 2024–March 2025 lean season
  • 4.2 million people facing acute food insecurity between May–September 2024
  • 9 million people total affected by the combined impacts of El Niño floods and drought

OCHA launched a Flash Appeal in July 2024 targeting assistance for 3.8 million people, seeking to raise $136.5 million through 82 projects across 27 humanitarian partners.

Why this matters for businesses

The 2024 drought was not just a humanitarian event — it reshaped business conditions across multiple sectors:

Agricultural supply chains. Companies sourcing agricultural produce in Malawi — raw materials, contracted farming output, food processing inputs — experienced supply shortfalls, price spikes, and supplier defaults. The 22.9% maize harvest decline was the direct agricultural supply number, but effects cascaded into soya, groundnuts, and other crops.

Purchasing power. With 28% of the population in food crisis, consumer purchasing power contracted significantly in rural areas. Businesses dependent on domestic consumer demand had a difficult year.

Labour market. Agricultural distress historically increases labour migration from rural areas, affecting both agricultural operations and urban labour supply.

Humanitarian and development procurement. The emergency response — $136.5 million in targeted assistance — generated significant procurement demand for food commodities, logistics, NFIs, and services. Companies with the capacity to supply humanitarian operations found a significant buyer in the market.

The structural issue

The 2024 El Niño drought was severe but not anomalous — it followed Cyclone Freddy in 2023, which destroyed 200,000+ hectares of cropland in the south. Southern and central Malawi are in a period of compounding climate shocks, with successive harvest failures reducing household resilience and deepening food insecurity.

For investment planning purposes, this pattern is material:

  • Agricultural investments in affected regions need climate risk built into design and financial projections
  • Business models assuming consistent local food supply need fallback plans
  • The humanitarian response cycle — emergency procurement, recovery programming — is recurring and creates predictable opportunity for logistics and supply companies

2025: a recovery

The 2025/26 forecast (FEWS NET) pointed to an average harvest and improved food security for most of the country, with persistent challenges in the south. The recovery from 2024 was real but incomplete — the consecutive shocks of Freddy (2023) and El Niño (2024) have left households in the south with depleted assets and limited recovery capacity.

Sources: OCHA Malawi Drought Flash Appeal July 2024, WFP, FEWS NET, Africanews.